FootyTips 
Uzbekistan vs Colombia 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Mexico City Stadium
Match Status
Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Colombia to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: Uzbekistan 10%, draw 19%, Colombia 71%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%
model top outcome · 71%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Uzbekistan 10% / Draw 19% / Colombia 71%; expected goals 0.67-2.14; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 10.2%/20.2%/69.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia. Model pick: Colombia. Actual result: Colombia.
Brier contribution: 0.1306 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Uzbekistan win: 10%
- Draw: 19%
- Colombia win: 71%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.67 - 2.14
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 44%
Model Ratings
Uzbekistan Elo 1728 · Colombia Elo 2082
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Uzbekistan and Colombia have met 1 time: 0 Uzbekistan wins, 0 draws, 1 Colombia win.
- Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia · 2026-06-17 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Colombia clear favourites at 71% in this Group K fixture at Mexico City Stadium — Uzbekistan 10%, the draw 19%, Colombia 71%. A big Elo gap in Colombia's favour (2082 vs 1728), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Colombia are favoured at 71%. Uzbekistan 10% / Draw 19% / Colombia 71%.
What is the predicted score for Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 10.4% Uzbekistan win, 21.1% draw, 68.5% Colombia win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 10.2% / 20.2% / 69.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Uzbekistan vs Colombia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uzbekistan and Colombia?
Uzbekistan and Colombia have met 1 time: 0 Uzbekistan wins, 0 draws, 1 Colombia win.