Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Estadio Azteca
Our model gives Colombia a 60% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–1.
Win Probability
- Uzbekistan win: 18%
- Draw: 22%
- Colombia win: 60%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.95 – 1.92
- Over 2.5 goals: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Uzbekistan Elo 1710 · Colombia Elo 1900
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Colombia are favoured at 60% against World Cup debutants Uzbekistan (18%), with the draw at 22% and a 0–1 away win most likely. Colombia's rating (1900 vs 1710) gives them a clear edge.
Uzbekistan's historic first World Cup match comes against a polished Colombian side. Over 2.5 at 55%. Colombia's flair against Uzbek organisation should see the South Americans edge a controlled contest.
FAQ
Who will win Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Colombia are favoured with a 60% win probability. Uzbekistan 18% / Draw 22% / Colombia 60%.
What is the predicted score for Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–1.
Will Uzbekistan vs Colombia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.