Tunisia vs Japan Prediction

Jun 21, 04:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 2 · Monterrey Stadium

Match Status

Tunisia 0-4 Japan · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Japan to win at 69%. Overall probabilities: Tunisia 11%, draw 20%, Japan 69%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 69%

Tunisia 0-4 Japan result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Japan
model top outcome · 69%

0-2
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Tunisia 11% / Draw 20% / Japan 69%; expected goals 0.69-2.07; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 11.8%/21.5%/66.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/tunisia-vs-japan-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/tunisia-vs-japan.png" alt="Tunisia vs Japan prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Tunisia 0-4 Japan. Model pick: Japan. Actual result: Japan.

Brier contribution: 0.1465 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Tunisia win: 11%
Draw: 20%
Japan win: 69%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.69 - 2.07
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 44%

Model Ratings

Tunisia Elo 1681 · Japan Elo 1975

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Tunisia and Japan have met 6 times: 1 Tunisia win, 0 draws, 5 Japan wins.

Tunisia 0–4 Japan · 2026-06-20 · FIFA World Cup
Japan 0–3 Tunisia · 2022-06-14 · Kirin Cup
Japan 2–0 Tunisia · 2015-03-27 · Kirin Challenge Cup
Tunisia 0–1 Japan · 2003-10-08
Japan 2–0 Tunisia · 2002-06-14 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model rates Japan clear favourites at 69% in this Group F fixture at Monterrey Stadium — Tunisia 11%, the draw 20%, Japan 69%. A big Elo gap in Japan's favour (1975 vs 1681), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?

Japan are favoured at 69%. Tunisia 11% / Draw 20% / Japan 69%.

What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Japan?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Tunisia vs Japan?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 12.4% Tunisia win, 22.7% draw, 65.0% Japan win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 11.8% / 21.5% / 66.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Tunisia vs Japan have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Japan?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.

What is the head-to-head record between Tunisia and Japan?

Tunisia and Japan have met 6 times: 1 Tunisia win, 0 draws, 5 Japan wins.