FootyTips 
Mexico vs South Korea 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Guadalajara Stadium
Match Status
Mexico 1-0 South Korea · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Mexico to win at 64%. Overall probabilities: Mexico 64%, draw 22%, South Korea 14%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 64%
model top outcome · 64%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Mexico 64% / Draw 22% / South Korea 14%; expected goals 1.91-0.75; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 53.8%/26.7%/19.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Mexico 1-0 South Korea. Model pick: Mexico. Actual result: Mexico.
Brier contribution: 0.1940 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Mexico win: 64%
- Draw: 22%
- South Korea win: 14%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.91 - 0.75
- Over 2.5: 50%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Mexico Elo 2010 · South Korea Elo 1840
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Mexico and South Korea have met 15 times: 9 Mexico wins, 3 draws, 3 South Korea wins.
- Mexico 1–0 South Korea · 2026-06-18 · FIFA World Cup
- Mexico 2–2 South Korea · 2025-09-09
- Mexico 3–2 South Korea · 2020-11-14
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico · 2018-06-23 · FIFA World Cup
- Mexico 4–0 South Korea · 2014-01-29
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Mexico clear favourites at 64% in this Group A fixture at Guadalajara Stadium — Mexico 64%, the draw 22%, South Korea 14%. A clear Elo edge to Mexico (2010 vs 1840), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Mexico vs South Korea?
Mexico are favoured at 64%. Mexico 64% / Draw 22% / South Korea 14%.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Korea?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Mexico vs South Korea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 46.3% Mexico win, 29.4% draw, 24.2% South Korea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 53.8% / 26.7% / 19.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Mexico vs South Korea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs South Korea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mexico and South Korea?
Mexico and South Korea have met 15 times: 9 Mexico wins, 3 draws, 3 South Korea wins.