FootyTips 
Brazil vs Norway 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · New York/New Jersey Stadium
Match Status
Brazil 1-2 Norway · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Brazil to win at 52%. Overall probabilities: Brazil 52%, draw 26%, Norway 22%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 52%
model top outcome · 52%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Brazil 52% / Draw 26% / Norway 22%; expected goals 1.57-0.92; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 53.0%/26.0%/21.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Brazil 1-2 Norway. Model pick: Brazil. Actual result: Norway.
Brier contribution: 0.9537 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- Brazil win: 52%
- Draw: 26%
- Norway win: 22%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.57 - 0.92
- Over 2.5: 45%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Brazil Elo 2075 · Norway Elo 2022
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-05. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Brazil and Norway have met 5 times: 0 Brazil wins, 2 draws, 3 Norway wins.
- Brazil 1–2 Norway · 2026-07-05 · FIFA World Cup
- Norway 1–1 Brazil · 2006-08-16
- Brazil 1–2 Norway · 1998-06-23 · FIFA World Cup
- Norway 4–2 Brazil · 1997-05-30
- Norway 1–1 Brazil · 1988-07-28
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes Brazil clear favourites at 52% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium — Brazil 52%, the draw 26%, Norway 22%. A modest Elo edge to Brazil (2075 vs 2022), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Brazil vs Norway?
Brazil are favoured at 52%. Brazil 52% / Draw 26% / Norway 22%.
What is the predicted score for Brazil vs Norway?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Brazil vs Norway?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 53.7% Brazil win, 25.8% draw, 20.5% Norway win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 53.0% / 26.0% / 21.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Brazil vs Norway have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brazil vs Norway?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brazil and Norway?
Brazil and Norway have met 5 times: 0 Brazil wins, 2 draws, 3 Norway wins.