FootyTips 
Spain vs Austria 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Spain to win at 79%. Overall probabilities: Spain 79%, draw 15%, Austria 6%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 79%
model top outcome · 79%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Spain win
Model 78.7% vs market 72.5%, edge +6.2pp.
Best available odds: 1.358 at 1xbet · odds value +7%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Spain win is 1.36 with 1xbet. The model has it at 78.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 72.5% (+6.2pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T20:51:33.256Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Austria win
Model 6.5% vs market 9.3%, edge -2.8pp.
Best available odds: 10.6 at 1xbet · odds value -31%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Austria win is 10.60 with 1xbet. The model has it at 6.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 9.3% (-2.8pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T20:51:33.256Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 14.9% vs market 18.3%, edge -3.4pp.
Best available odds: 5.39 at 1xbet · odds value -20%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 5.39 with 1xbet. The model has it at 14.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 18.3% (-3.4pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T20:51:33.256Z.
| Source | Spain | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 78.7% | 14.9% | 6.5% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 72.5% | 18.3% | 9.3% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 75.1% | 16.9% | 8.1% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | Spain | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.32 | 5 | 9 |
| 1xbet | 1.358 | 5.39 | 10.6 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.33 | 5 | 9.6 |
| cloudbet | 1.31 | 5.25 | 9.95 |
| vave | 1.33 | 5.2 | 9.8 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.34 | 5.25 | 9.7 |
| ★ Best | 1.358 1xbet | 5.39 1xbet | 10.6 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: Spain 79% / Draw 15% / Austria 6%; expected goals 2.48-0.58; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 75.1%/16.9%/8.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T20:51:33.256Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Spain win: 79%
- Draw: 15%
- Austria win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.48 - 0.58
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 41%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2203 · Austria Elo 1901
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Spain clear favourites at 79% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Spain 79%, the draw 15%, Austria 6%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2203 vs 1901), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Austria?
Spain are favoured at 79%. Spain 79% / Draw 15% / Austria 6%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Austria?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Spain vs Austria?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 72.5% Spain win, 18.3% draw, 9.3% Austria win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 75.1% / 16.9% / 8.1%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T20:51:33.256Z.
Will Spain vs Austria have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Austria?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.