FootyTips 
Spain vs Austria 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
Spain 3-0 Austria · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Spain to win at 79%. Overall probabilities: Spain 79%, draw 15%, Austria 6%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 79%
model top outcome · 79%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Spain 79% / Draw 15% / Austria 6%; expected goals 2.48-0.58; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 75.2%/16.6%/8.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Spain 3-0 Austria. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.
Brier contribution: 0.0719 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- Spain win: 79%
- Draw: 15%
- Austria win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.48 - 0.58
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 41%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2323 · Austria Elo 1886
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-02. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Spain and Austria have met 17 times: 10 Spain wins, 3 draws, 4 Austria wins.
- Spain 3–0 Austria · 2026-07-02 · FIFA World Cup
- Austria 1–5 Spain · 2009-11-18
- Spain 4–0 Austria · 2001-09-01 · FIFA World Cup qualification
- Austria 1–1 Spain · 2000-10-11 · FIFA World Cup qualification
- Austria 1–3 Spain · 1999-09-04 · UEFA Euro qualification
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Spain clear favourites at 79% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Spain 79%, the draw 15%, Austria 6%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2323 vs 1886), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Austria?
Spain are favoured at 79%. Spain 79% / Draw 15% / Austria 6%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Austria?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Spain vs Austria?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 72.7% Spain win, 17.7% draw, 9.6% Austria win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 75.2% / 16.6% / 8.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Spain vs Austria have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Austria?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Austria?
Spain and Austria have met 17 times: 10 Spain wins, 3 draws, 4 Austria wins.