Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction

Jun 20, 05:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 2 · Houston Stadium

Match Status

Netherlands 5-1 Sweden · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Netherlands to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: Netherlands 71%, draw 19%, Sweden 10%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%

Netherlands 5-1 Sweden result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Netherlands
model top outcome · 71%

2-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Netherlands 71% / Draw 19% / Sweden 10%; expected goals 2.13-0.67; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 62.7%/21.8%/15.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/netherlands-vs-sweden-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/netherlands-vs-sweden.png" alt="Netherlands vs Sweden prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Netherlands 5-1 Sweden. Model pick: Netherlands. Actual result: Netherlands.

Brier contribution: 0.1318 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Netherlands win: 71%
Draw: 19%
Sweden win: 10%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.13 - 0.67
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 44%

Model Ratings

Netherlands Elo 2044 · Sweden Elo 1800

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Netherlands and Sweden have met 26 times: 12 Netherlands wins, 6 draws, 8 Sweden wins.

Netherlands 5–1 Sweden · 2026-06-20 · FIFA World Cup
Netherlands 2–0 Sweden · 2017-10-10 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Sweden 1–1 Netherlands · 2016-09-06 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Sweden 3–2 Netherlands · 2011-10-11 · UEFA Euro qualification
Netherlands 4–1 Sweden · 2010-10-12 · UEFA Euro qualification

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model makes Netherlands clear favourites at 71% in this Group F fixture at Houston Stadium — Netherlands 71%, the draw 19%, Sweden 10%. A big Elo gap in Netherlands's favour (2044 vs 1800), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?

Netherlands are favoured at 71%. Netherlands 71% / Draw 19% / Sweden 10%.

What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Sweden?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Netherlands vs Sweden?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 56.5% Netherlands win, 23.2% draw, 20.3% Sweden win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 62.7% / 21.8% / 15.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Netherlands vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Sweden?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.

What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Sweden?

Netherlands and Sweden have met 26 times: 12 Netherlands wins, 6 draws, 8 Sweden wins.