Uruguay vs Cape Verde Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Hard Rock Stadium
Our model gives Uruguay a 74% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Uruguay win: 74%
- Draw: 16%
- Cape Verde win: 10%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.40 – 0.76
- Over 2.5 goals: 61%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Uruguay Elo 1880 · Cape Verde Elo 1700
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Uruguay are strong favourites at 74% against Cape Verde (10%), with the draw at 16% and a 2–0 most likely. Uruguay's rating (1880 vs 1700) makes them clear favourites for second behind Spain.
Cape Verde will compete hard but face a significant step up. Over 2.5 at 61%. Uruguay will treat this as a must-win, knowing goal difference could matter in the race to qualify.
FAQ
Who will win Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Uruguay are favoured with a 74% win probability. Uruguay 74% / Draw 16% / Cape Verde 10%.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Uruguay vs Cape Verde have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.