FootyTips 
Uruguay vs Cape Verde 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Miami Stadium
Match Status
Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Uruguay to win at 80%. Overall probabilities: Uruguay 80%, draw 14%, Cape Verde 6%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 80%
model top outcome · 80%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Uruguay 80% / Draw 14% / Cape Verde 6%; expected goals 2.57-0.56; BTTS 40%; blended best estimate 72.5%/19.0%/8.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde. Model pick: Uruguay. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.3912 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Uruguay win: 80%
- Draw: 14%
- Cape Verde win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.57 - 0.56
- Over 2.5: 60%
- Both teams to score: 40%
Model Ratings
Uruguay Elo 1921 · Cape Verde Elo 1700
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Uruguay and Cape Verde have met 1 time: 0 Uruguay wins, 1 draw, 0 Cape Verde wins.
- Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde · 2026-06-21 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Uruguay clear favourites at 80% in this Group H fixture at Miami Stadium — Uruguay 80%, the draw 14%, Cape Verde 6%. A big Elo gap in Uruguay's favour (1921 vs 1700), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 40%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Uruguay are favoured at 80%. Uruguay 80% / Draw 14% / Cape Verde 6%.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 66.3% Uruguay win, 22.9% draw, 10.8% Cape Verde win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 72.5% / 19.0% / 8.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Uruguay vs Cape Verde have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uruguay and Cape Verde?
Uruguay and Cape Verde have met 1 time: 0 Uruguay wins, 1 draw, 0 Cape Verde wins.