FootyTips 
Spain vs Argentina 
Prediction
· Final · New York/New Jersey Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Spain narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Spain 39%, draw 29%, Argentina 32%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Argentina win
Model 32.4% vs market 26.5%, edge +5.8pp.
Best available odds: 3.675 at 1xbet · odds value +19%. cloudbet 3.65 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Argentina win is 3.67 with 1xbet. The model has it at 32.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.5% (+5.8pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-19T01:45:12.420Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Spain win
Model 39.1% vs market 41.4%, edge -2.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.37 at vave · odds value -7%. stake 2.3 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Spain win is 2.37 with vave. The model has it at 39.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 41.4% (-2.3pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-19T01:45:12.420Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 28.6% vs market 31.7%, edge -3.1pp.
Best available odds: 3.12 at 1xbet · odds value -11%. stake 3 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.12 with 1xbet. The model has it at 28.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 31.7% (-3.1pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-19T01:45:12.420Z.
| Source | Spain | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 39.1% | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave) | 41.4% | 31.7% | 26.5% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 40.6% | 30.5% | 28.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Jul 19, 12:00 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Spain | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.3 | 3 | 3.45 |
| 1xbet | 2.365 | 3.12 | 3.675 |
| bcgame ↗ | 2.3 | 2.96 | 3.6 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.25 | 3 | 3.65 |
| roobet | 2.3 | 2.96 | 3.6 |
| vave | 2.37 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.25 | 3 | 3.65 |
| ★ Best | 2.37 vave | 3.12 1xbet | 3.675 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Spain 39% / Draw 29% / Argentina 32%; expected goals 1.27-1.13; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 40.6%/30.5%/28.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-19T01:45:12.420Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Spain win: 39%
- Draw: 29%
- Argentina win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.27 - 1.13
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2295 · Argentina Elo 2271
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Spain and Argentina have met 14 times: 6 Spain wins, 2 draws, 6 Argentina wins.
- Spain 6–1 Argentina · 2018-03-27
- Argentina 4–1 Spain · 2010-09-07
- Spain 2–1 Argentina · 2009-11-14
- Spain 2–1 Argentina · 2006-10-11
- Spain 0–2 Argentina · 1999-11-17
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium: Spain 39%, the draw 29%, Argentina 32%. With near-level Elo ratings (Spain 2295, Argentina 2271), Spain are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Argentina?
Spain are favoured at 39%. Spain 39% / Draw 29% / Argentina 32%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Spain vs Argentina?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave imply 41.4% Spain win, 31.7% draw, 26.5% Argentina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 40.6% / 30.5% / 28.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-19T01:45:12.420Z.
Will Spain vs Argentina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Argentina?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Argentina?
Spain and Argentina have met 14 times: 6 Spain wins, 2 draws, 6 Argentina wins.