Spain vs Argentina Prediction

Jul 19, 07:00 PM UTC · Final · New York/New Jersey Stadium

Match Status

Spain 1-0 Argentina · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Spain narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Spain 39%, draw 29%, Argentina 32%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%

Spain 1-0 Argentina result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Spain
model top outcome · 39%

1-0
model score forecast

43%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-19
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Spain 39% / Draw 29% / Argentina 32%; expected goals 1.27-1.13; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 40.7%/30.6%/28.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/spain-vs-argentina-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/spain-vs-argentina.png" alt="Spain vs Argentina prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Spain 1-0 Argentina. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.

Brier contribution: 0.5579 · settled 2026-09-04

Win Probability

Spain win: 39%
Draw: 29%
Argentina win: 32%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.27 - 1.13
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Spain Elo 2323 · Argentina Elo 2244

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Spain and Argentina have met 15 times: 7 Spain wins, 2 draws, 6 Argentina wins.

Spain 1–0 Argentina · 2026-07-19 · FIFA World Cup
Spain 6–1 Argentina · 2018-03-27
Argentina 4–1 Spain · 2010-09-07
Spain 2–1 Argentina · 2009-11-14
Spain 2–1 Argentina · 2006-10-11

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium: Spain 39%, the draw 29%, Argentina 32%. With a modest Elo edge to Spain (2323 vs 2244), Spain are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Spain vs Argentina?

Spain are favoured at 39%. Spain 39% / Draw 29% / Argentina 32%.

What is the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Spain vs Argentina?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 41.7% Spain win, 31.9% draw, 26.4% Argentina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 40.7% / 30.6% / 28.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Spain vs Argentina have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spain vs Argentina?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Argentina?

Spain and Argentina have met 15 times: 7 Spain wins, 2 draws, 6 Argentina wins.