FootyTipsModel Track Record
Across 23 World Cups (988 matches), our model called the correct result 56.5% of the time — versus ~33% for random guessing and ~45% for always backing the home/seeded side. Brier score 0.574 (lower is better; random ≈ 0.667).
World Cup backtest matches
World Cups tested
win/draw/loss hit rate
Brier score
Citable source note: this is a walk-forward backtest using only information available before each historical match. Historical match data comes from martj42/international_results; World Cup 2026 settlement is tracked separately after final scores are available.
World Cup 2026 Live Settlement
Settled matches
Correct W/D/L picks
Live hit rate
Live Brier
World Cup 2026 results are settled after full time and include misses as well as hits. See the public prediction results ledger.
Hit Rate by Tournament
| World Cup | Correct result |
|---|---|
| 1930 | 78% |
| 1934 | 71% |
| 1938 | 67% |
| 1950 | 50% |
| 1954 | 73% |
| 1958 | 43% |
| 1962 | 63% |
| 1966 | 66% |
| 1970 | 63% |
| 1974 | 53% |
| 1978 | 53% |
| 1982 | 50% |
| 1986 | 60% |
| 1990 | 52% |
| 1994 | 54% |
| 1998 | 55% |
| 2002 | 50% |
| 2006 | 64% |
| 2010 | 52% |
| 2014 | 59% |
| 2018 | 56% |
| 2022 | 55% |
| 2026 | 50% |
| All 23 editions | 56.5% |
How We Test — No Cheating
We replay every international match since 1872 (49,429 games) in date order, updating each team's Elo rating after every result. For each historical World Cup match, the prediction uses only the Elo available before kick-off — then we compare it to what actually happened. This walk-forward design means no future information leaks in: it reflects how the model would genuinely have performed at the time.
The exact same engine — Elo driven by real results, not hand-set numbers — powers our World Cup 2026 predictions. Method details on How It Works, with probability reliability shown in the calibration report.
Match results are sourced from the open-source martj42/international_results dataset (every international match since 1872); World Cup 2026 fixtures from TheSportsDB. The results dataset is released under a CC0 public-domain licence, so this backtest is fully reproducible.
An Honest Note
56.5% correct at win/draw/loss is a strong, competitive level for international football — but it is not a crystal ball. Upsets are part of the game, and part of any honest model. That's why every page shows probabilities, not guarantees.
FAQ
How accurate are FootyTips predictions?
Backtested across 23 World Cups (988 matches), the model called the correct result — win, draw or loss — 56.5% of the time, well above the ~33% random and ~45% always-home baselines.
How is the backtest done without cheating?
We replay every international match since 1872 in date order, building each team's Elo rating as we go. For each historical World Cup game we predict using only the Elo available before kick-off, then compare to the actual result. No future information is ever used.
Does the hit rate mean predictions are guaranteed?
No. Around 56% correct at win/draw/loss is strong for international football, but upsets are inherent to the game. We publish probabilities, not certainties.
Updated 2026-06-19 · based on 49,429 historical international matches from the martj42/international_results dataset.