FootyTips 
Netherlands vs Morocco 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Monterrey Stadium
Match Status
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Netherlands narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Netherlands 39%, draw 29%, Morocco 32%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No market odds connected yet. FootyTips shows model probabilities for this match, but no value signal is shown until a licensed odds snapshot is imported.
Citable facts: Netherlands 39% / Draw 29% / Morocco 32%; expected goals 1.27-1.13; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 39.8%/29.6%/30.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Netherlands 1-1 Morocco. Model pick: Netherlands. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.7675 · settled 2026-06-30
Win Probability
- Netherlands win: 39%
- Draw: 29%
- Morocco win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.27 - 1.13
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Netherlands Elo 2043 · Morocco Elo 2023
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-30. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Monterrey Stadium: Netherlands 39%, the draw 29%, Morocco 32%. With near-level Elo ratings (Netherlands 2043, Morocco 2023), Netherlands are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Netherlands vs Morocco?
Netherlands are favoured at 39%. Netherlands 39% / Draw 29% / Morocco 32%.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Netherlands vs Morocco?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 40.1% Netherlands win, 30.3% draw, 29.6% Morocco win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 39.8% / 29.6% / 30.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Netherlands vs Morocco have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Morocco?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.