FootyTips 
France vs Iraq 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Philadelphia Stadium
Match Status
France 3-0 Iraq · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours France to win at 88%. Overall probabilities: France 88%, draw 9%, Iraq 3%; model score 3-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 88%
model top outcome · 88%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: France 88% / Draw 9% / Iraq 3%; expected goals 3.07-0.47; BTTS 36%; blended best estimate 88.9%/8.4%/2.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score France 3-0 Iraq. Model pick: France. Actual result: France.
Brier contribution: 0.0243 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- France win: 88%
- Draw: 9%
- Iraq win: 3%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 3-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 3.07 - 0.47
- Over 2.5: 69%
- Both teams to score: 36%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2191 · Iraq Elo 1672
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
France and Iraq have met 1 time: 1 France win, 0 draws, 0 Iraq wins.
- France 3–0 Iraq · 2026-06-22 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates France clear favourites at 88% in this Group I fixture at Philadelphia Stadium — France 88%, the draw 9%, Iraq 3%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2191 vs 1672), and the model score forecast is 3–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 36%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win France vs Iraq?
France are favoured at 88%. France 88% / Draw 9% / Iraq 3%.
What is the predicted score for France vs Iraq?
Our model score forecast is 3-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about France vs Iraq?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 89.5% France win, 7.9% draw, 2.6% Iraq win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 88.9% / 8.4% / 2.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will France vs Iraq have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs Iraq?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between France and Iraq?
France and Iraq have met 1 time: 1 France win, 0 draws, 0 Iraq wins.