Turkey vs USA Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · SoFi Stadium
Our model gives Turkey a 48% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Turkey win: 48%
- Draw: 25%
- USA win: 27%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.61 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Turkey Elo 1840 · USA Elo 1820
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
A heavyweight Group D finale: Turkey at 48%, the USA at 27% and the draw at 25%. Turkey's rating edge (1840 vs 1820) is slim, and against the co-hosts' crowd the model lands on a 1–1 draw most often.
With both sides likely chasing top spot or qualification, expect an open, high-stakes game: 54% for both to score. Turkey's attacking talent against American energy and home support makes this one of the more compelling final-round fixtures.
FAQ
Who will win Turkey vs USA?
Turkey are favoured with a 48% win probability. Turkey 48% / Draw 25% / USA 27%.
What is the predicted score for Turkey vs USA?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Turkey vs USA have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Turkey vs USA?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.