Turkey vs USA Prediction

Jun 26, 02:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 3 · Los Angeles Stadium

Match Status

Turkey 3-2 USA · FT · Miss

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours USA to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Turkey 19%, draw 25%, USA 56%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%

Turkey 3-2 USA result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

USA
model top outcome · 56%

0-1
model score forecast

47%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-26
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Turkey 19% / Draw 25% / USA 56%; expected goals 0.86-1.68; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 25.0%/24.6%/50.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Turkey 3-2 USA. Model pick: USA. Actual result: Turkey.

Brier contribution: 1.0404 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Turkey win: 19%
Draw: 25%
USA win: 56%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.86 - 1.68
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams to score: 47%

Model Ratings

Turkey Elo 1922 · USA Elo 1837

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-26. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Turkey and USA have met 6 times: 3 Turkey wins, 1 draw, 2 USA wins.

USA 2–3 Turkey · 2026-06-25 · FIFA World Cup
USA 1–2 Turkey · 2025-06-07
USA 2–1 Turkey · 2014-06-01
USA 2–1 Turkey · 2010-05-29
Turkey 2–1 USA · 2003-06-19 · Confederations Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs USA clear favourites at 56% in this Group D fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Turkey 19%, the draw 25%, USA 56%. A clear Elo edge to Turkey (1922 vs 1837), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Turkey vs USA?

USA are favoured at 56%. Turkey 19% / Draw 25% / USA 56%.

What is the predicted score for Turkey vs USA?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Turkey vs USA?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 29.9% Turkey win, 23.9% draw, 46.2% USA win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 25.0% / 24.6% / 50.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Turkey vs USA have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Turkey vs USA?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.

What is the head-to-head record between Turkey and USA?

Turkey and USA have met 6 times: 3 Turkey wins, 1 draw, 2 USA wins.