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Model probability vs market odds

Model probability vs the betting market

No clear value edges at current prices — here are the model’s highest-confidence calls instead.

See the divergence board → See the track record
67/104 64.4% 2026 hit rate 1 pick streak +4.7u +4.6% on 102 priced 56.6% 22-World Cup backtest +0.02pp closing-line edge over 74 settled
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FootyTips live model record: 67/104, 64.4% hit rate

World Cup 2026 — final record

The World Cup is settled. The scoreboard stays public.

The model closed the World Cup 2026 at 67/104 settled calls (64.4%), with every hit and miss published in the results ledger. The same model now covers the Premier League.

See the track record Audit the results

Premier League 2026/27 kicks off Sep 5

1 day to go 9 matches

Opening-round model probabilities are already live — tap through for score forecasts and market odds. More fixtures are added as they are confirmed.

All Premier League fixtures →
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Not started Kickoff 11:30 UTC Newcastle United favoured · 38% / 26% / 36% Fulham vs Crystal Palace Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Fulham favoured · 44% / 26% / 30% Manchester City vs Coventry City Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Manchester City favoured · 80% / 13% / 7% Brighton and Hove Albion vs Leeds United Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Brighton and Hove Albion favoured · 45% / 26% / 29% Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Nottingham Forest favoured · 54% / 24% / 22% Brentford vs Sunderland Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Brentford favoured · 54% / 24% / 22% Hull City vs Aston Villa Not started Kickoff 16:30 UTC Aston Villa favoured · 17% / 21% / 62% Everton vs Manchester United Not started Kickoff 13:00 UTC Manchester United favoured · 32% / 26% / 42% Arsenal vs Chelsea Not started Kickoff 15:30 UTC Arsenal favoured · 66% / 20% / 14%

Premier League 2026/27 Title Race

20,000 Monte Carlo season simulations — title and top-4 probabilities for the leading clubs.

Full winner prediction →
Arsenal Title 48.2% Top 4 92% Manchester City Title 38.8% Top 4 90% Manchester United Title 2.6% Top 4 31% Liverpool Title 2.5% Top 4 31% Chelsea Title 1.6% Top 4 25%

Highest relegation risk: Coventry City 54% · Ipswich Town 46%

Latest Public Receipts

Every finished match is settled in public, including misses.

Prediction results
Spain 1–0 Argentina — model called it Model called it Spain 1–0 Argentina Predicted Spain; actual Spain. France 4–6 England — model missed Model missed France 4–6 England Predicted France; actual England. England 1–2 Argentina — model called it Model called it England 1–2 Argentina Predicted Argentina; actual Argentina.

Public Track Record

56.6%
World Cup backtest hit rate across 22 tournamentsBrier 0.570
Probability quality, not only top-pick accuracy 104
2026 settled matches · 64.4% hit rate

Explore FootyTips

⚽ Premier League 2026/27
Predictions hub for the new season🏆 EPL Winner Prediction
Title, top-4 & relegation odds⚖️ Market Edge
Model vs odds📆 Predictions Today
Matches on the day📊 Sportsbook Data
Measured odds quality, not reviews✅ Track Record
56.6% across 22 World Cups🧠 How It Works
Our prediction model🗄️ World Cup 2026 Archive
Final record 67/104 — every call kept

Featured Premier League Predictions

Arsenal vs Hull City · Matchweek 10 Not started
Arsenal 88% Draw 9% Hull City 3%
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 3–0
Manchester City vs Hull City · Matchweek 16 Not started
Manchester City 87% Draw 9% Hull City 4%
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Manchester City favoured · model score 3–0
Arsenal vs Ipswich Town · Matchweek 19 Not started
Arsenal 82% Draw 12% Ipswich Town 6%
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 2–0
Hull City vs Arsenal · Matchweek 21 Not started
Hull City 6% Draw 12% Arsenal 82%
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 0–2
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town · Matchweek 7 Not started
Manchester City 81% Draw 13% Ipswich Town 6%
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Manchester City favoured · model score 2–0
Hull City vs Manchester City · Matchweek 27 Not started
Hull City 7% Draw 13% Manchester City 80%
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Manchester City favoured · model score 0–2

Football Data & Insights

Data deep-dives from 150 years and 49,000+ international matches.

🏟️ Host Advantage
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By titles, win rate & peak Elo🔥 Biggest Rivalries
Most-played fixtures in history⚽ World Cup Top Scorers
All-time leading goalscorers