FootyTips 
Belgium vs Egypt 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Seattle Stadium
Match Status
Belgium 1-1 Egypt · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Belgium to win at 60%. Overall probabilities: Belgium 60%, draw 24%, Egypt 16%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 60%
model top outcome · 60%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Belgium 60% / Draw 24% / Egypt 16%; expected goals 1.78-0.81; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 60.4%/23.6%/16.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Belgium 1-1 Egypt. Model pick: Belgium. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.9693 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Belgium win: 60%
- Draw: 24%
- Egypt win: 16%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.78 - 0.81
- Over 2.5: 48%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
Belgium Elo 2022 · Egypt Elo 1841
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Belgium and Egypt have met 5 times: 1 Belgium win, 1 draw, 3 Egypt wins.
- Belgium 1–1 Egypt · 2026-06-15 · FIFA World Cup
- Egypt 2–1 Belgium · 2022-11-18
- Belgium 3–0 Egypt · 2018-06-06
- Egypt 4–0 Belgium · 2005-02-09
- Belgium 0–1 Egypt · 1999-03-30
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes Belgium clear favourites at 60% in this Group G fixture at Seattle Stadium — Belgium 60%, the draw 24%, Egypt 16%. A clear Elo edge to Belgium (2022 vs 1841), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Belgium vs Egypt?
Belgium are favoured at 60%. Belgium 60% / Draw 24% / Egypt 16%.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Egypt?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Belgium vs Egypt?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 60.5% Belgium win, 23.5% draw, 16.0% Egypt win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.4% / 23.6% / 16.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Belgium vs Egypt have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgium vs Egypt?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belgium and Egypt?
Belgium and Egypt have met 5 times: 1 Belgium win, 1 draw, 3 Egypt wins.