FootyTips 
Iraq vs Norway 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Boston Stadium
Match Status
Iraq 1-4 Norway · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Norway to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: Iraq 10%, draw 19%, Norway 71%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%
model top outcome · 71%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Iraq 10% / Draw 19% / Norway 71%; expected goals 0.67-2.13; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 6.9%/15.0%/78.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Iraq 1-4 Norway. Model pick: Norway. Actual result: Norway.
Brier contribution: 0.1318 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Iraq win: 10%
- Draw: 19%
- Norway win: 71%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.67 - 2.13
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 44%
Model Ratings
Iraq Elo 1672 · Norway Elo 2022
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Iraq and Norway have met 1 time: 0 Iraq wins, 0 draws, 1 Norway win.
- Iraq 1–4 Norway · 2026-06-16 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Norway clear favourites at 71% in this Group I fixture at Boston Stadium — Iraq 10%, the draw 19%, Norway 71%. A big Elo gap in Norway's favour (2022 vs 1672), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Iraq vs Norway?
Norway are favoured at 71%. Iraq 10% / Draw 19% / Norway 71%.
What is the predicted score for Iraq vs Norway?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Iraq vs Norway?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 5.3% Iraq win, 12.5% draw, 82.1% Norway win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 6.9% / 15.0% / 78.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Iraq vs Norway have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Norway?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraq and Norway?
Iraq and Norway have met 1 time: 0 Iraq wins, 0 draws, 1 Norway win.