FootyTips 
Iran vs New Zealand 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
Iran 2-2 New Zealand · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Iran to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Iran 62%, draw 23%, New Zealand 15%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%
model top outcome · 62%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Iran 62% / Draw 23% / New Zealand 15%; expected goals 1.82-0.79; BTTS 46%; blended best estimate 56.7%/25.8%/17.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Iran 2-2 New Zealand. Model pick: Iran. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.9906 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Iran win: 62%
- Draw: 23%
- New Zealand win: 15%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.82 - 0.79
- Over 2.5: 48%
- Both teams to score: 46%
Model Ratings
Iran Elo 1880 · New Zealand Elo 1673
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Iran and New Zealand have met 3 times: 1 Iran win, 2 draws, 0 New Zealand wins.
- Iran 2–2 New Zealand · 2026-06-15 · FIFA World Cup
- Iran 3–0 New Zealand · 2003-10-12
- New Zealand 0–0 Iran · 1973-08-12
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Iran clear favourites at 62% in this Group G fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Iran 62%, the draw 23%, New Zealand 15%. A big Elo gap in Iran's favour (1880 vs 1673), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 46%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Iran vs New Zealand?
Iran are favoured at 62%. Iran 62% / Draw 23% / New Zealand 15%.
What is the predicted score for Iran vs New Zealand?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Iran vs New Zealand?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 53.5% Iran win, 27.5% draw, 18.9% New Zealand win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 56.7% / 25.8% / 17.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Iran vs New Zealand have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Iran vs New Zealand?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iran and New Zealand?
Iran and New Zealand have met 3 times: 1 Iran win, 2 draws, 0 New Zealand wins.