Iran vs New Zealand Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · SoFi Stadium
Our model gives Iran a 66% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Iran win: 66%
- Draw: 20%
- New Zealand win: 14%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.12 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals: 57%
- Both teams to score: 51%
Model Ratings
Iran Elo 1790 · New Zealand Elo 1660
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Iran are favoured at 66% against New Zealand (14%), with the draw at 20% and a 2–0 projected. Iran's rating (1790 vs 1660) and experience give them the edge in this opener.
New Zealand will be well-organised and difficult to break down. Over 2.5 goals at 57%. For Iran, this is the kind of fixture they must win to keep pace in a group headed by Belgium.
FAQ
Who will win Iran vs New Zealand?
Iran are favoured with a 66% win probability. Iran 66% / Draw 20% / New Zealand 14%.
What is the predicted score for Iran vs New Zealand?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Iran vs New Zealand have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Iran vs New Zealand?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.