Australia vs Turkey Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · BC Place
Our model gives Turkey a 45% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Australia win: 30%
- Draw: 25%
- Turkey win: 45%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.19 – 1.53
- Over 2.5 goals: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Australia Elo 1740 · Turkey Elo 1840
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Turkey are favoured at 45% against Australia (30%), with the draw at 25%, on the back of a clear rating edge (1840 vs 1740). Still, with goals at a premium the model's most likely scoreline is a 1–1 draw.
Australia's running power and set-piece threat can unsettle more technical opponents, and this looks a genuine contest: 55% for both to score. Turkey's flair against Australian grit should make for an entertaining and pivotal Group D opener.
FAQ
Who will win Australia vs Turkey?
Turkey are favoured with a 45% win probability. Australia 30% / Draw 25% / Turkey 45%.
What is the predicted score for Australia vs Turkey?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Australia vs Turkey have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Australia vs Turkey?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.