Australia vs Turkey Prediction

Jun 14, 04:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 1 · BC Place Vancouver

Match Status

Australia 2-0 Turkey · FT · Miss

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Turkey to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Australia 26%, draw 28%, Turkey 46%; model score 1-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%

Australia 2-0 Turkey result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Turkey
model top outcome · 46%

1-1
model score forecast

44%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Australia 26% / Draw 28% / Turkey 46%; expected goals 1.02-1.42; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 20.8%/26.5%/52.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-turkey-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/australia-vs-turkey.png" alt="Australia vs Turkey prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Australia 2-0 Turkey. Model pick: Turkey. Actual result: Australia.

Brier contribution: 0.8252 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Australia win: 26%
Draw: 28%
Turkey win: 46%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.02 - 1.42
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Australia Elo 1904 · Turkey Elo 1922

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Australia and Turkey have met 3 times: 1 Australia win, 0 draws, 2 Turkey wins.

Australia 2–0 Turkey · 2026-06-13 · FIFA World Cup
Australia 0–1 Turkey · 2004-05-24
Australia 1–3 Turkey · 2004-05-21

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model rates Turkey clear favourites at 46% in this Group D fixture at BC Place Vancouver — Australia 26%, the draw 28%, Turkey 46%. Near-level Elo ratings (Australia 1904, Turkey 1922), and the model score forecast is 1–1.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Australia vs Turkey?

Turkey are favoured at 46%. Australia 26% / Draw 28% / Turkey 46%.

What is the predicted score for Australia vs Turkey?

Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Australia vs Turkey?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 17.4% Australia win, 25.4% draw, 57.2% Turkey win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 20.8% / 26.5% / 52.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Australia vs Turkey have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Australia vs Turkey?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Australia and Turkey?

Australia and Turkey have met 3 times: 1 Australia win, 0 draws, 2 Turkey wins.