FootyTips 
Norway vs England 
Prediction
· Quarter-finals · Miami Stadium
Match Status
Norway 1-2 England · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours England to win at 51%. Overall probabilities: Norway 22%, draw 27%, England 51%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 51%
model top outcome · 51%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Norway 22% / Draw 27% / England 51%; expected goals 0.93-1.54; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 22.8%/25.5%/51.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Norway 1-2 England. Model pick: England. Actual result: England.
Brier contribution: 0.3597 · settled 2026-07-12
Win Probability
- Norway win: 22%
- Draw: 27%
- England win: 51%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.93 - 1.54
- Over 2.5: 45%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Norway Elo 2043 · England Elo 2148
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Norway and England have met 12 times: 2 Norway wins, 3 draws, 7 England wins.
- England 1–0 Norway · 2014-09-03
- Norway 0–1 England · 2012-05-26
- Norway 0–0 England · 1995-10-11
- England 0–0 Norway · 1994-05-22
- Norway 2–0 England · 1993-06-02 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has England clear favourites at 51% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Miami Stadium — Norway 22%, the draw 27%, England 51%. A clear Elo edge to England (2148 vs 2043), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Norway vs England?
England are favoured at 51%. Norway 22% / Draw 27% / England 51%.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs England?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Norway vs England?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 23.2% Norway win, 24.8% draw, 52.1% England win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 22.8% / 25.5% / 51.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Norway vs England have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norway vs England?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norway and England?
Norway and England have met 12 times: 2 Norway wins, 3 draws, 7 England wins.