FootyTips 
Argentina vs Switzerland 
Prediction
· Quarter-finals · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 01:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Argentina to win at 67%. Overall probabilities: Argentina 67%, draw 21%, Switzerland 12%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 67%
model top outcome · 67%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Argentina win
Model 67.1% vs market 55.7%, edge +11.4pp.
Best available odds: 1.767 at 1xbet · odds value +19%. duelbits 1.71 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Strong value: the current top sportsbook price for Argentina win is 1.77 with 1xbet. The model has it at 67.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 55.7% (+11.4pp edge).
Potential value if the available odds remain close to this price. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-09T00:02:33.129Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Switzerland win
Model 12.1% vs market 17.4%, edge -5.3pp.
Best available odds: 5.68 at 1xbet · odds value -31%. duelbits 5.45 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Switzerland win is 5.68 with 1xbet. The model has it at 12.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 17.4% (-5.3pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-09T00:02:33.129Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 20.8% vs market 26.9%, edge -6.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.655 at 1xbet · odds value -24%. duelbits 3.55 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.65 with 1xbet. The model has it at 20.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.9% (-6.0pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-09T00:02:33.129Z.
| Source | Argentina | Draw | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 67.1% | 20.8% | 12.1% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave) | 55.7% | 26.9% | 17.4% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 60.4% | 24.4% | 15.1% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Jul 9, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Argentina | Draw | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.69 | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| 1xbet | 1.767 | 3.655 | 5.68 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.69 | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| cloudbet | 1.7 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| roobet | 1.7 | 3.55 | 5.4 |
| vave | 1.72 | 3.6 | 5.6 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.71 | 3.55 | 5.45 |
| ★ Best | 1.767 1xbet | 3.655 1xbet | 5.68 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: Argentina 67% / Draw 21% / Switzerland 12%; expected goals 2.00-0.72; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 60.4%/24.4%/15.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-09T00:02:33.129Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Argentina win: 67%
- Draw: 21%
- Switzerland win: 12%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.00 - 0.72
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Argentina Elo 2228 · Switzerland Elo 2015
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-09. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Argentina and Switzerland have met 7 times: 5 Argentina wins, 2 draws, 0 Switzerland wins.
- Argentina 1–0 Switzerland · 2014-07-01 · FIFA World Cup
- Switzerland 1–3 Argentina · 2012-02-29
- Switzerland 1–1 Argentina · 2007-06-02
- Switzerland 1–1 Argentina · 1990-05-08
- Switzerland 0–2 Argentina · 1984-09-01
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Argentina clear favourites at 67% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Kansas City Stadium — Argentina 67%, the draw 21%, Switzerland 12%. A big Elo gap in Argentina's favour (2228 vs 2015), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Argentina vs Switzerland?
Argentina are favoured at 67%. Argentina 67% / Draw 21% / Switzerland 12%.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Switzerland?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Argentina vs Switzerland?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave imply 55.7% Argentina win, 26.9% draw, 17.4% Switzerland win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.4% / 24.4% / 15.1%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-09T00:02:33.129Z.
Will Argentina vs Switzerland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Argentina vs Switzerland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Argentina and Switzerland?
Argentina and Switzerland have met 7 times: 5 Argentina wins, 2 draws, 0 Switzerland wins.