Norway vs France Prediction

Jun 26, 07:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 3 · Boston Stadium

Match Status

Norway 1-4 France · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours France to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Norway 19%, draw 25%, France 56%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%

Norway 1-4 France result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

France
model top outcome · 56%

0-1
model score forecast

46%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-26
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Norway 19% / Draw 25% / France 56%; expected goals 0.86-1.67; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 15.3%/20.2%/64.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/norway-vs-france-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/norway-vs-france.png" alt="Norway vs France prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Norway 1-4 France. Model pick: France. Actual result: France.

Brier contribution: 0.2914 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Norway win: 19%
Draw: 25%
France win: 56%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.86 - 1.67
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams to score: 47%

Model Ratings

Norway Elo 2022 · France Elo 2191

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-26. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Norway and France have met 17 times: 5 Norway wins, 4 draws, 8 France wins.

Norway 1–4 France · 2026-06-26 · FIFA World Cup
France 4–0 Norway · 2014-05-27
Norway 2–1 France · 2010-08-11
France 3–3 Norway · 1998-02-25
Norway 0–0 France · 1995-07-22

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model has France clear favourites at 56% in this Group I fixture at Boston Stadium — Norway 19%, the draw 25%, France 56%. A clear Elo edge to France (2191 vs 2022), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Norway vs France?

France are favoured at 56%. Norway 19% / Draw 25% / France 56%.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs France?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Norway vs France?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 13.2% Norway win, 17.2% draw, 69.6% France win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 15.3% / 20.2% / 64.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Norway vs France have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Norway vs France?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.

What is the head-to-head record between Norway and France?

Norway and France have met 17 times: 5 Norway wins, 4 draws, 8 France wins.