Norway vs France Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Gillette Stadium
Our model gives France a 66% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–2.
Win Probability
- Norway win: 14%
- Draw: 20%
- France win: 66%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–2
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.86 – 2.12
- Over 2.5 goals: 57%
- Both teams to score: 51%
Model Ratings
Norway Elo 1830 · France Elo 2060
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
France are heavily favoured at 66% against Norway (14%), with the draw at 20% and a 0–2 the most likely result. France's quality (2060 vs 1830) should tell in this final-round clash.
Norway will need to be brave, which could open the game up: 57% for over 2.5 goals. If Norway must chase a result to advance, France's counter-attacking threat becomes especially dangerous.
FAQ
Who will win Norway vs France?
France are favoured with a 66% win probability. Norway 14% / Draw 20% / France 66%.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs France?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–2.
Will Norway vs France have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norway vs France?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.