FootyTips 
Egypt vs Iran 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Seattle Stadium
Match Status
Egypt 1-1 Iran · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Iran narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Egypt 30%, draw 28%, Iran 42%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Egypt 30% / Draw 28% / Iran 42%; expected goals 1.07-1.34; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 33.4%/33.3%/33.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Egypt 1-1 Iran. Model pick: Iran. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.7795 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Egypt win: 30%
- Draw: 28%
- Iran win: 42%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.07 - 1.34
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Egypt Elo 1841 · Iran Elo 1880
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-27. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Egypt and Iran have met 2 times: 0 Egypt wins, 2 draws, 0 Iran wins.
- Egypt 1–1 Iran · 2026-06-26 · FIFA World Cup
- Iran 1–1 Egypt · 2000-06-07
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Group G fixture at Seattle Stadium: Egypt 30%, the draw 28%, Iran 42%. With a modest Elo edge to Iran (1880 vs 1841), Iran are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Egypt vs Iran?
Iran are favoured at 42%. Egypt 30% / Draw 28% / Iran 42%.
What is the predicted score for Egypt vs Iran?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Egypt vs Iran?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 35.6% Egypt win, 36.4% draw, 28.0% Iran win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.4% / 33.3% / 33.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Egypt vs Iran have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Egypt vs Iran?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Egypt and Iran?
Egypt and Iran have met 2 times: 0 Egypt wins, 2 draws, 0 Iran wins.