FootyTips 
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 00:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours USA to win at 78%. Overall probabilities: USA 78%, draw 15%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 78%
model top outcome · 78%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: USA win
Model 78.0% vs market 59.1%, edge +18.9pp.
Best available odds: 1.416 at 1xbet · odds value +10%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model–market disagreement: the current top sportsbook price for USA win is 1.42 with 1xbet. The model has it at 78.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 59.1% (+18.9pp edge).
The gap between model and market is unusually large. Gaps this size usually mean the model is missing information (injuries, line-ups, form) — treat it as a caution flag, not value. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-26T03:13:01.141Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 15.3% vs market 23.3%, edge -8.1pp.
Best available odds: 5.09 at 1xbet · odds value -22%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 5.09 with 1xbet. The model has it at 15.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 23.3% (-8.1pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-26T03:13:01.141Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Bosnia-Herzegovina win
Model 6.8% vs market 17.6%, edge -10.8pp.
Best available odds: 8.85 at 1xbet · odds value -40%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Bosnia-Herzegovina win is 8.85 with 1xbet. The model has it at 6.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 17.6% (-10.8pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-26T03:13:01.141Z.
| Source | USA | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 78.0% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 59.1% | 23.3% | 17.6% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 67.6% | 20.2% | 12.3% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | USA | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.38 | 4.8 | 8 |
| 1xbet | 1.416 | 5.09 | 8.85 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.39 | 4.7 | 8 |
| cloudbet | 1.36 | 4.85 | 8.85 |
| vave | 1.4 | 4.9 | 8.2 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.39 | 4.9 | 8.4 |
| ★ Best | 1.416 1xbet | 5.09 1xbet | 8.85 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: USA 78% / Draw 15% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%; expected goals 2.44-0.59; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 67.6%/20.2%/12.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-26T03:13:01.141Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- USA win: 78%
- Draw: 15%
- Bosnia-Herzegovina win: 7%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.44 - 0.59
- Over 2.5: 58%
- Both teams to score: 41%
Model Ratings
USA Elo 1877 · Bosnia-Herzegovina Elo 1681
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes USA clear favourites at 78% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium — USA 78%, the draw 15%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%. A clear Elo edge to USA (1877 vs 1681), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
USA are favoured at 78%. USA 78% / Draw 15% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 59.1% USA win, 23.3% draw, 17.6% Bosnia-Herzegovina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 67.6% / 20.2% / 12.3%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-26T03:13:01.141Z.
Will USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.