FootyTips 
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Match Status
USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours USA to win at 78%. Overall probabilities: USA 78%, draw 15%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 78%
model top outcome · 78%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: USA 78% / Draw 15% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%; expected goals 2.44-0.59; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 67.6%/20.2%/12.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Model pick: USA. Actual result: USA.
Brier contribution: 0.0766 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- USA win: 78%
- Draw: 15%
- Bosnia-Herzegovina win: 7%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.44 - 0.59
- Over 2.5: 58%
- Both teams to score: 41%
Model Ratings
USA Elo 1837 · Bosnia-Herzegovina Elo 1667
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
USA and Bosnia-Herzegovina have met 4 times: 3 USA wins, 1 draw, 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina wins.
- USA 2–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina · 2026-07-01 · FIFA World Cup
- USA 1–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina · 2021-12-18
- USA 0–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina · 2018-01-28
- Bosnia-Herzegovina 3–4 USA · 2013-08-14
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes USA clear favourites at 78% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium — USA 78%, the draw 15%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%. A clear Elo edge to USA (1837 vs 1667), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
USA are favoured at 78%. USA 78% / Draw 15% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 7%.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 59.1% USA win, 23.3% draw, 17.6% Bosnia-Herzegovina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 67.6% / 20.2% / 12.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between USA and Bosnia-Herzegovina?
USA and Bosnia-Herzegovina have met 4 times: 3 USA wins, 1 draw, 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina wins.