Hull City vs Arsenal Prediction

Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 21 · The MKM Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 81%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 6%, draw 13%, Arsenal 81%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 81%

Hull City vs Arsenal prediction: 6% / 13% / 81% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 81%

0-2
model score forecast

67%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Hull City 6% / Draw 13% / Arsenal 81%; expected goals 0.66-2.78; BTTS 45%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Hull City win: 6%
Draw: 13%
Arsenal win: 81%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.66 - 2.78
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams to score: 45%

Model Ratings

Hull City Elo 1499 · Arsenal Elo 2000

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 81% in this Matchweek 21 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 6%, the draw 13%, Arsenal 81%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Hull City vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 81%. Hull City 6% / Draw 13% / Arsenal 81%.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Hull City vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hull City vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.