Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction

Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 30 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 77%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 77%, draw 15%, Sunderland 8%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 77%

Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction: 77% / 15% / 8% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 77%

2-0
model score forecast

64%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 77% / Draw 15% / Sunderland 8%; expected goals 2.57-0.71; BTTS 47%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/arsenal-vs-sunderland-2027-03-20-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/arsenal-vs-sunderland-2027-03-20.png" alt="Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 77%
Draw: 15%
Sunderland win: 8%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.57 - 0.71
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams to score: 47%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Sunderland Elo 1648

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 77% in this Matchweek 30 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 77%, the draw 15%, Sunderland 8%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Arsenal are favoured at 77%. Arsenal 77% / Draw 15% / Sunderland 8%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.