Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Mar 3, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 28 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 71%, draw 18%, Crystal Palace 11%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction: 71% / 18% / 11% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 71%

2-0
model score forecast

59%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 71% / Draw 18% / Crystal Palace 11%; expected goals 2.29-0.80; BTTS 50%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 71%
Draw: 18%
Crystal Palace win: 11%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.29 - 0.80
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams to score: 50%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 1979 · Crystal Palace Elo 1700

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 71% in this Matchweek 28 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 71%, the draw 18%, Crystal Palace 11%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1700), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 50%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Arsenal are favoured at 71%. Arsenal 71% / Draw 18% / Crystal Palace 11%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.