Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?
Our AI model makes Argentina favourites to win the World Cup 2026 at 13.4%, ahead of France (10.2%) and Spain (9.3%). Title chances below are derived from each team's Elo strength rating across all 48 nations.
Title-Winner Probabilities — All 48 Teams
| # | Team | Group | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | J | 13.4% |
| 2 | France | I | 10.2% |
| 3 | Spain | H | 9.3% |
| 4 | Brazil | C | 7.1% |
| 5 | England | L | 6.5% |
| 6 | Portugal | K | 5.4% |
| 7 | Netherlands | F | 4.9% |
| 8 | Germany | E | 3.8% |
| 9 | Belgium | G | 3.4% |
| 10 | Colombia | K | 2.4% |
| 11 | Croatia | L | 2.4% |
| 12 | Morocco | C | 2.2% |
| 13 | Uruguay | H | 2.0% |
| 14 | Switzerland | B | 1.5% |
| 15 | Japan | F | 1.5% |
| 16 | Turkey | D | 1.4% |
| 17 | Mexico | A | 1.4% |
| 18 | Norway | I | 1.3% |
| 19 | Senegal | I | 1.2% |
| 20 | Austria | J | 1.2% |
| 21 | USA | D | 1.2% |
| 22 | Scotland | C | 1.0% |
| 23 | Egypt | G | 1.0% |
| 24 | Algeria | J | 1.0% |
| 25 | Ecuador | E | 1.0% |
| 26 | Czech Republic | A | 1.0% |
| 27 | South Korea | A | 0.9% |
| 28 | Iran | G | 0.9% |
| 29 | Ivory Coast | E | 0.9% |
| 30 | Sweden | F | 0.9% |
| 31 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | B | 0.8% |
| 32 | Paraguay | D | 0.7% |
| 33 | Canada | B | 0.7% |
| 34 | DR Congo | K | 0.7% |
| 35 | Ghana | L | 0.6% |
| 36 | Australia | D | 0.6% |
| 37 | South Africa | A | 0.5% |
| 38 | Tunisia | F | 0.5% |
| 39 | Uzbekistan | K | 0.4% |
| 40 | Panama | L | 0.4% |
| 41 | Cape Verde | H | 0.4% |
| 42 | Qatar | B | 0.4% |
| 43 | Saudi Arabia | H | 0.4% |
| 44 | Iraq | I | 0.3% |
| 45 | Jordan | J | 0.3% |
| 46 | New Zealand | G | 0.3% |
| 47 | Curaçao | E | 0.2% |
| 48 | Haiti | C | 0.2% |
How We Calculate This
Title chances come from each team's Elo rating — a single measure of current strength — converted into a win probability and normalised across the field. It is a transparent model estimate, not a guarantee. Full method on our How It Works page.
FAQ
Who will win the World Cup 2026 according to AI?
Our AI model makes Argentina the most likely winner at 13.4%, ahead of France (10.2%) and Spain (9.3%).
Who are the favourites for the 2026 World Cup?
The model's top five are Argentina, France, Spain, Brazil, England.
How are the title chances calculated?
Each team's title probability is derived from its Elo strength rating, then normalised across all 48 teams. These are model estimates, not guarantees — upsets are part of football.