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Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?

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Spain are the 2026 World Cup champions. The settled final leaves them as the only team with a title probability (100.0%).

Spain
champion · 100.0% title chance
20,000
Monte Carlo tournament simulations

Citable note: title chances are model estimates from FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson engine. Market figures are Polymarket World Cup winner prices (snapshot 2026-09-04 20:30 UTC); "Best est." blends model and market 40/60 in log space. They are probabilities, not guarantees, and will update as match results are settled.

Model vs Market: Where We Disagree

We benchmark our simulations against Polymarket's World Cup winner market — over $0.0B traded. The model leans on long-run Elo strength; the market also prices in squad news, injuries and sentiment. The biggest gaps right now:

Spain
model 100.0% vs market 0.1% — model higher

Market prices from Polymarket snapshot 2026-09-04 20:30 UTC. "Best estimate" blends model and market (40/60 in log space).

Title-Winner Probabilities — All 48 Teams

#TeamGrpModelMarketBest est.Last 4Reach KO
1 Spain H 100.0% 0.1% 1.1% 100.0% 100%
2 Netherlands F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
3 Germany E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
4 Portugal K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
5 Croatia L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
6 France I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100%
7 England L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100%
8 Sweden F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
9 Brazil C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
10 Mexico A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
11 Australia D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
12 Colombia K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
13 Ivory Coast E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
14 Japan F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
15 Switzerland B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
16 Ecuador E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
17 Argentina J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100%
18 Bosnia-Herzegovina B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
19 Ghana L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
20 USA D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
21 Belgium G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
22 Algeria J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
23 Austria J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
24 Egypt G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
25 Morocco C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
26 Senegal I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
27 Paraguay D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
28 DR Congo K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
29 Cape Verde H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
30 South Africa A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
31 Norway I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
32 Canada B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
33 Czech Republic A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
34 Uruguay H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
35 Iran G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
36 South Korea A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
37 Turkey D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
38 Saudi Arabia H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
39 Panama L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
40 Tunisia F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
41 Scotland C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
42 Qatar B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
43 New Zealand G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
44 Jordan J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
45 Iraq I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
46 Uzbekistan K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
47 Haiti C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
48 Curaçao E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%

Sources: Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson, 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Market — Polymarket World Cup winner market ($0.0B traded), snapshot 2026-09-04 20:30 UTC. Best est. — model × market blend (40/60, log space).

How We Calculate This

The first 102 matches and the final result are locked to the official results. The champion therefore has 100% title probability and every other team has 0%. It is a transparent estimate, not a guarantee. Full method on our How It Works page. See also: does hosting help you win the World Cup?

FAQ

Who will win the World Cup 2026 according to AI?

Spain are the confirmed champions after the settled final.

Who are the favourites for the 2026 World Cup?

Spain are the confirmed champions.

How are the title chances calculated?

The first 102 matches are fixed to official results. Before the final, we simulate only that match 20,000 times; after it is settled, the champion is 100% and every eliminated team is 0%.

How does the AI model compare to prediction markets?

We benchmark our simulations against Polymarket's World Cup winner market (over $0.0B traded). The model currently rates Spain at 100.0% versus the market's 0.1%. Where they disagree, the model is leaning on long-run Elo strength; the market also prices in squad news, injuries and sentiment.

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