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Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?

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The final is Spain vs Argentina. With the first 102 matches locked, 20,000 simulations of the final give Spain 53.8% and Argentina 46.2%.

Spain
model favourite · 53.8% title chance
Argentina
second · 46.2% title chance
20,000
Monte Carlo tournament simulations

Citable note: title chances are model estimates from FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson engine. Market figures are Polymarket World Cup winner prices (snapshot 2026-07-18 21:45 UTC); "Best est." blends model and market 40/60 in log space. They are probabilities, not guarantees, and will update as match results are settled.

Model vs Market: Where We Disagree

We benchmark our simulations against Polymarket's World Cup winner market — over $4.3B traded. The model leans on long-run Elo strength; the market also prices in squad news, injuries and sentiment. The biggest gaps right now:

Argentina
model 46.2% vs market 40.5% — model higher
Spain
market 59.5% vs model 53.8% — market higher

Market prices from Polymarket snapshot 2026-07-18 21:45 UTC. "Best estimate" blends model and market (40/60 in log space).

Title-Winner Probabilities — All 48 Teams

#TeamGrpModelMarketBest est.Last 4Reach KO
1 Spain H 53.8% 59.5% 57.3% 100.0% 100%
2 Argentina J 46.2% 40.5% 42.7% 100.0% 100%
3 Netherlands F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
4 Germany E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
5 Portugal K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
6 Croatia L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
7 France I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100%
8 England L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100%
9 Sweden F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
10 Brazil C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
11 Mexico A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
12 Australia D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
13 Colombia K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
14 Ivory Coast E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
15 Japan F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
16 Switzerland B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
17 Ecuador E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
18 Bosnia-Herzegovina B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
19 Ghana L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
20 USA D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
21 Belgium G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
22 Algeria J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
23 Austria J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
24 Egypt G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
25 Morocco C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
26 Senegal I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
27 Paraguay D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
28 DR Congo K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
29 Cape Verde H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
30 South Africa A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
31 Norway I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
32 Canada B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
33 Czech Republic A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
34 Uruguay H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
35 Iran G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
36 South Korea A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
37 Turkey D 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
38 Saudi Arabia H 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
39 Panama L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
40 Tunisia F 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
41 Scotland C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
42 Qatar B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
43 New Zealand G 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
44 Jordan J 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
45 Iraq I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
46 Uzbekistan K 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
47 Haiti C 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
48 Curaçao E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0%

Sources: Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson, 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Market — Polymarket World Cup winner market ($4.3B traded), snapshot 2026-07-18 21:45 UTC. Best est. — model × market blend (40/60, log space).

How We Calculate This

The first 102 matches are locked to the official results. Each of 20,000 runs simulates only the remaining final with our Elo + Poisson model; eliminated teams stay at 0%. It is a transparent estimate, not a guarantee. Full method on our How It Works page. See also: does hosting help you win the World Cup?

FAQ

Who will win the World Cup 2026 according to AI?

The remaining finalists are Spain (53.8%) and Argentina (46.2%).

Who are the favourites for the 2026 World Cup?

Only the two finalists remain: Spain and Argentina.

How are the title chances calculated?

The first 102 matches are fixed to official results. Before the final, we simulate only that match 20,000 times; after it is settled, the champion is 100% and every eliminated team is 0%.

How does the AI model compare to prediction markets?

We benchmark our simulations against Polymarket's World Cup winner market (over $4.3B traded). The model currently rates Spain at 53.8% versus the market's 59.5%. Where they disagree, the model is leaning on long-run Elo strength; the market also prices in squad news, injuries and sentiment.

Cite This Data

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