FootyTips¿Quién ganará la Premier League?
Basado en 20.000 simulaciones Monte Carlo del resto de la temporada (modelo Elo + Poisson). Se actualiza con cada resultado.
| # | Equipo | Elo | Título | Top 4 | Descenso |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1997 | 62.3% | 98.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1965 | 29.6% | 93.7% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 1839 | 4.6% | 65.4% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1838 | 1.8% | 45.9% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 1806 | 0.5% | 21.3% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Chelsea | 1762 | 0.5% | 20.6% | 0.8% |
| 7 | Brentford | 1768 | 0.3% | 14.7% | 1.1% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1781 | 0.2% | 15.2% | 1.2% |
| 9 | Everton | 1713 | 0.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
| 10 | Leeds United | 1735 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| 11 | Manchester United | 1760 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 1707 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 8.3% |
| 13 | Fulham | 1699 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 14.2% |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1673 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 11.2% |
Credibilidad del modelo: en un backtest out-of-sample de dos temporadas (2024-25 y 2025-26, 760 partidos) el mismo motor acertó el 51.3% con Brier 0.6083, al nivel de la línea base del mercado (51.4%).