Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United Prediction

Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 21 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Leeds United to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Tottenham Hotspur 29%, draw 25%, Leeds United 46%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%

Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United prediction: 29% / 25% / 46% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 46%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Tottenham Hotspur 29% / Draw 25% / Leeds United 46%; expected goals 1.18-1.55; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Tottenham Hotspur win: 29%
Draw: 25%
Leeds United win: 46%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.18 - 1.55
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1621 · Leeds United Elo 1757

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Leeds United clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 21 fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — Tottenham Hotspur 29%, the draw 25%, Leeds United 46%. A clear Elo edge to Leeds United (1757 vs 1621), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United?

Leeds United are favoured at 46%. Tottenham Hotspur 29% / Draw 25% / Leeds United 46%.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.