Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa Prediction

Sep 19, 11:30 AM UTC · Matchweek 5 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 11:30 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 48%. Overall probabilities: Tottenham Hotspur 27%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 48%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 48%

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction: 27% / 25% / 48% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 48%

0-1
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Tottenham Hotspur 27% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 48%; expected goals 1.14-1.60; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Tottenham Hotspur win: 27%
Draw: 25%
Aston Villa win: 48%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.14 - 1.60
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1642 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 48% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — Tottenham Hotspur 27%, the draw 25%, Aston Villa 48%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1798 vs 1642), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are favoured at 48%. Tottenham Hotspur 27% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 48%.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.