FootyTips 
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Match Status
Tottenham Hotspur 2-3 Aston Villa · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Tottenham Hotspur 29%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 45%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 45%
model top outcome · 45%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Tottenham Hotspur 29% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 45%; expected goals 1.19-1.53; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 41.3%/26.6%/32.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Tottenham Hotspur 2-3 Aston Villa. Model pick: Aston Villa. Actual result: Aston Villa.
Brier contribution: 0.4588 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Tottenham Hotspur win: 29%
- Draw: 26%
- Aston Villa win: 45%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.19 - 1.53
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1621 · Aston Villa Elo 1748
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — Tottenham Hotspur 29%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 45%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1748 vs 1621), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa are favoured at 45%. Tottenham Hotspur 29% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 45%.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 49.4% Tottenham Hotspur win, 25.9% draw, 24.6% Aston Villa win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 41.3% / 26.6% / 32.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.