Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 15 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Nottingham Forest narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Sunderland 34%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 40%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest prediction: 34% / 26% / 40% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Nottingham Forest
model top outcome · 40%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 34% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 40%; expected goals 1.28-1.42; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 34%
Draw: 26%
Nottingham Forest win: 40%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.28 - 1.42
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1608 · Nottingham Forest Elo 1691

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 15 fixture at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 34%, the draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 40%. With a clear Elo edge to Nottingham Forest (1691 vs 1608), Nottingham Forest are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?

Nottingham Forest are favoured at 40%. Sunderland 34% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 40%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.