Sunderland vs Newcastle United Prediction

May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 34 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Newcastle United narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Sunderland 33%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 41%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%

Sunderland vs Newcastle United prediction: 33% / 26% / 41% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 41%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 33% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 41%; expected goals 1.27-1.43; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 33%
Draw: 26%
Newcastle United win: 41%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.27 - 1.43
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1649 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 34 fixture at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 33%, the draw 26%, Newcastle United 41%. With a clear Elo edge to Newcastle United (1737 vs 1649), Newcastle United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle United?

Newcastle United are favoured at 41%. Sunderland 33% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 41%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.