Sunderland vs Manchester United Prediction

Mar 3, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 28 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester United to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 27%, draw 26%, Manchester United 47%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%

Sunderland vs Manchester United prediction: 27% / 26% / 47% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 47%

0-1
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 27% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 47%; expected goals 1.15-1.59; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 27%
Draw: 26%
Manchester United win: 47%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.15 - 1.59
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1608 · Manchester United Elo 1760

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Manchester United clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 28 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 27%, the draw 26%, Manchester United 47%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1760 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester United?

Manchester United are favoured at 47%. Sunderland 27% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 47%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Manchester United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.