FootyTips 
Sunderland vs Manchester City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 38 · Stadium of Light
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester City to win at 69%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 12%, draw 19%, Manchester City 69%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 69%
model top outcome · 69%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Sunderland 12% / Draw 19% / Manchester City 69%; expected goals 0.83-2.21; BTTS 50%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Sunderland win: 12%
- Draw: 19%
- Manchester City win: 69%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.83 - 2.21
- Over 2.5: 58%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Sunderland Elo 1608 · Manchester City Elo 1965
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 69% in this Matchweek 38 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 12%, the draw 19%, Manchester City 69%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1965 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 50%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are favoured at 69%. Sunderland 12% / Draw 19% / Manchester City 69%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Manchester City?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Sunderland vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Manchester City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.