Sunderland vs Manchester City Prediction

May 30, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 38 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester City to win at 66%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 14%, draw 20%, Manchester City 66%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 66%

Sunderland vs Manchester City prediction: 14% / 20% / 66% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester City
model top outcome · 66%

0-2
model score forecast

57%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 14% / Draw 20% / Manchester City 66%; expected goals 0.86-2.11; BTTS 51%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 14%
Draw: 20%
Manchester City win: 66%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.86 - 2.11
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams to score: 51%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1648 · Manchester City Elo 1978

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 66% in this Matchweek 38 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 14%, the draw 20%, Manchester City 66%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1978 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester City?

Manchester City are favoured at 66%. Sunderland 14% / Draw 20% / Manchester City 66%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Manchester City?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.