Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction

Oct 25, 04:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 8 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Sunderland 0-0 Leeds United · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Leeds United narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Sunderland 31%, draw 26%, Leeds United 43%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%

Sunderland 0-0 Leeds United result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 43%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-10-25
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Crypto Sportsbook Odds

Featured sportsbook — Cloudbet

Sunderland 2.8 Draw 3.15 Leeds United 2.65

Bet at Cloudbet ↗

Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.

Odds snapshot: Oct 18, 08:02 PM UTC.

Sportsbook	Sunderland	Draw	Leeds United
stake ↗	2.8	3.3	2.5
cloudbet ↗	2.8	3.15	2.65
duelbits ↗	2.8	3.3	2.6
★ Best	2.8 stake	3.3 stake	2.65 cloudbet

Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →

Citable facts: Sunderland 31% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 43%; expected goals 1.23-1.48; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 33.0%/28.0%/39.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Sunderland 0-0 Leeds United. Model pick: Leeds United. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 0.8270 · settled 2026-11-06

Win Probability

Sunderland win: 31%
Draw: 26%
Leeds United win: 43%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.23 - 1.48
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1608 · Leeds United Elo 1735

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-25. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 8 fixture at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 31%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 43%. With a clear Elo edge to Leeds United (1735 vs 1608), Leeds United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Leeds United are favoured at 43%. Sunderland 31% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 43%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Sunderland vs Leeds United?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 33.9% Sunderland win, 29.4% draw, 36.7% Leeds United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.0% / 28.0% / 39.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Sunderland vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.