FootyTips 
Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Stadium of Light
Match Status
Sunderland 0-2 Brighton and Hove Albion · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Brighton and Hove Albion to win at 49%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 26%, draw 25%, Brighton and Hove Albion 49%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 49%
model top outcome · 49%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Sunderland 26% / Draw 25% / Brighton and Hove Albion 49%; expected goals 1.13-1.62; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 28.8%/26.7%/44.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Sunderland 0-2 Brighton and Hove Albion. Model pick: Brighton and Hove Albion. Actual result: Brighton and Hove Albion.
Brier contribution: 0.3974 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Sunderland win: 26%
- Draw: 25%
- Brighton and Hove Albion win: 49%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.13 - 1.62
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Sunderland Elo 1608 · Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1839
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-10. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Brighton and Hove Albion clear favourites at 49% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 26%, the draw 25%, Brighton and Hove Albion 49%. A big Elo gap in Brighton and Hove Albion's favour (1839 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Brighton and Hove Albion are favoured at 49%. Sunderland 26% / Draw 25% / Brighton and Hove Albion 49%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 30.6% Sunderland win, 27.6% draw, 41.8% Brighton and Hove Albion win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 28.8% / 26.7% / 44.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.