FootyTips 
Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Stadium of Light
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Brighton and Hove Albion to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 29%, draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 45%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 45%
model top outcome · 45%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Brighton and Hove Albion win
Model 45.3% vs market 38.3%, edge +7.0pp.
Best available odds: 2.49 at duelbits · odds value +13%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Brighton and Hove Albion win is 2.49 with duelbits. The model has it at 45.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 38.3% (+7.0pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Sunderland win
Model 29.0% vs market 34.1%, edge -5.1pp.
Best available odds: 2.8 at stake · odds value -19%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Sunderland win is 2.80 with stake. The model has it at 29.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 34.1% (-5.1pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.7% vs market 27.6%, edge -1.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.4 at stake · odds value -13%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.40 with stake. The model has it at 25.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.6% (-1.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Sunderland | Draw | Brighton and Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 29.0% | 25.7% | 45.3% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 34.1% | 27.6% | 38.3% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 32.1% | 26.9% | 41.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Sunderland | Draw | Brighton and Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.43 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.75 | 3.4 | 2.45 |
| vave | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.49 |
| ★ Best | 2.8 stake | 3.4 stake | 2.49 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Sunderland 29% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 45%; expected goals 1.18-1.54; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 32.1%/26.9%/41.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Sunderland win: 29%
- Draw: 26%
- Brighton and Hove Albion win: 45%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.18 - 1.54
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Sunderland Elo 1648 · Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1780
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Brighton and Hove Albion clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 29%, the draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 45%. A clear Elo edge to Brighton and Hove Albion (1780 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Brighton and Hove Albion are favoured at 45%. Sunderland 29% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 45%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 34.1% Sunderland win, 27.6% draw, 38.3% Brighton and Hove Albion win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 32.1% / 26.9% / 41.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.