Sunderland vs Bournemouth Prediction

May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 36 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Bournemouth to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 28%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 46%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%

Sunderland vs Bournemouth prediction: 28% / 26% / 46% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Bournemouth
model top outcome · 46%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-12
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 28% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 46%; expected goals 1.17-1.56; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 28%
Draw: 26%
Bournemouth win: 46%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.17 - 1.56
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1655 · Bournemouth Elo 1797

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Bournemouth clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 36 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 28%, the draw 26%, Bournemouth 46%. A clear Elo edge to Bournemouth (1797 vs 1655), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Bournemouth?

Bournemouth are favoured at 46%. Sunderland 28% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 46%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Bournemouth?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Bournemouth?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.