Sunderland vs Aston Villa Prediction

Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 24 · Stadium of Light

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 28%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 47%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%

Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction: 28% / 25% / 47% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 47%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sunderland 28% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 47%; expected goals 1.15-1.58; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Sunderland win: 28%
Draw: 25%
Aston Villa win: 47%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.15 - 1.58
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Sunderland Elo 1649 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Aston Villa clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 24 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 28%, the draw 25%, Aston Villa 47%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1798 vs 1649), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Sunderland vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are favoured at 47%. Sunderland 28% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 47%.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Sunderland vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.