FootyTips 
Sunderland vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 24 · Stadium of Light
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Sunderland 32%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 42%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Sunderland 32% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 42%; expected goals 1.25-1.46; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Sunderland win: 32%
- Draw: 26%
- Aston Villa win: 42%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.25 - 1.46
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Sunderland Elo 1648 · Aston Villa Elo 1748
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 24 fixture at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 32%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 42%. With a clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1748 vs 1648), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa are favoured at 42%. Sunderland 32% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 42%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Sunderland vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.