FootyTips 
Sunderland vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Stadium of Light
Match Status
Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 67%. Overall probabilities: Sunderland 13%, draw 20%, Arsenal 67%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 67%
model top outcome · 67%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Sunderland 13% / Draw 20% / Arsenal 67%; expected goals 0.85-2.14; BTTS 51%; blended best estimate 14.2%/22.6%/63.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Arsenal.
Brier contribution: 0.1675 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Sunderland win: 13%
- Draw: 20%
- Arsenal win: 67%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.85 - 2.14
- Over 2.5: 57%
- Both teams to score: 51%
Model Ratings
Sunderland Elo 1648 · Arsenal Elo 2000
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 67% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Stadium of Light — Sunderland 13%, the draw 20%, Arsenal 67%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 67%. Sunderland 13% / Draw 20% / Arsenal 67%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Sunderland vs Arsenal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 14.7% Sunderland win, 24.7% draw, 60.6% Arsenal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 14.2% / 22.6% / 63.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Sunderland vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.