FootyTips 
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · City Ground
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Nottingham Forest narrowly favoured (44%). Overall probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44%, draw 26%, Leeds United 30%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%
model top outcome · 44%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.9% vs market 27.9%, edge -2.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.45 at stake · odds value -11%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.45 with stake. The model has it at 25.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.9% (-2.0pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Nottingham Forest win
Model 44.0% vs market 42.5%, edge +1.5pp.
Best available odds: 2.26 at stake · odds value -1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Nottingham Forest win is 2.26 with stake. The model has it at 44.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 42.5% (+1.5pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Leeds United win
Model 30.1% vs market 29.6%, edge +0.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.25 at stake · odds value -2%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Leeds United win is 3.25 with stake. The model has it at 30.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 29.6% (+0.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.1% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 42.5% | 27.9% | 29.6% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 43.1% | 27.1% | 29.8% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.26 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| roobet | 2.22 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| vave | 2.2 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.22 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| ★ Best | 2.26 stake | 3.45 stake | 3.25 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Nottingham Forest 44% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 30%; expected goals 1.51-1.21; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.1%/27.1%/29.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Nottingham Forest win: 44%
- Draw: 26%
- Leeds United win: 30%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.51 - 1.21
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Nottingham Forest Elo 1744 · Leeds United Elo 1724
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at City Ground: Nottingham Forest 44%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 30%. With near-level Elo ratings (Nottingham Forest 1744, Leeds United 1724), Nottingham Forest are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
Nottingham Forest are favoured at 44%. Nottingham Forest 44% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 30%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 42.5% Nottingham Forest win, 27.9% draw, 29.6% Leeds United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.1% / 27.1% / 29.8%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.