Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Prediction

Aug 22, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 1 · City Ground

Match Status

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Nottingham Forest narrowly favoured (44%). Overall probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44%, draw 26%, Leeds United 30%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Nottingham Forest
model top outcome · 44%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-22
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Nottingham Forest 44% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 30%; expected goals 1.51-1.21; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 42.4%/27.3%/30.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United. Model pick: Nottingham Forest. Actual result: Leeds United.

Brier contribution: 0.7487 · settled 2026-09-20

Win Probability

Nottingham Forest win: 44%
Draw: 26%
Leeds United win: 30%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.51 - 1.21
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Nottingham Forest Elo 1744 · Leeds United Elo 1757

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-22. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at City Ground: Nottingham Forest 44%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 30%. With near-level Elo ratings (Nottingham Forest 1744, Leeds United 1757), Nottingham Forest are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Nottingham Forest are favoured at 44%. Nottingham Forest 44% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 30%.

What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 41.4% Nottingham Forest win, 28.2% draw, 30.4% Leeds United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 42.4% / 27.3% / 30.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.