FootyTips 
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · The City Ground
Match Status
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Nottingham Forest to win at 61%. Overall probabilities: Nottingham Forest 61%, draw 22%, Coventry City 17%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 61%
model top outcome · 61%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Nottingham Forest 61% / Draw 22% / Coventry City 17%; expected goals 1.95-0.93; BTTS 52%; blended best estimate 59.5%/23.2%/17.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City. Model pick: Nottingham Forest. Actual result: Coventry City.
Brier contribution: 1.1057 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Nottingham Forest win: 61%
- Draw: 22%
- Coventry City win: 17%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.95 - 0.93
- Over 2.5: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Nottingham Forest Elo 1744 · Coventry City Elo 1563
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Nottingham Forest clear favourites at 61% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at The City Ground — Nottingham Forest 61%, the draw 22%, Coventry City 17%. A clear Elo edge to Nottingham Forest (1744 vs 1563), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
Nottingham Forest are favoured at 61%. Nottingham Forest 61% / Draw 22% / Coventry City 17%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 58.5% Nottingham Forest win, 24.2% draw, 17.2% Coventry City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 59.5% / 23.2% / 17.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.