FootyTips 
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 30 · The City Ground
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: Nottingham Forest 37%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 37%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Nottingham Forest 37% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 37%; expected goals 1.34-1.36; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Nottingham Forest win: 37%
- Draw: 26%
- Aston Villa win: 37%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.34 - 1.36
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Nottingham Forest Elo 1744 · Aston Villa Elo 1798
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 30 fixture at The City Ground: Nottingham Forest 37%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 37%. With a modest Elo edge to Aston Villa (1798 vs 1744), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa are favoured at 37%. Nottingham Forest 37% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 37%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.