FootyTips 
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · The City Ground
Match Status
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Nottingham Forest 19%, draw 23%, Arsenal 58%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%
model top outcome · 58%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Nottingham Forest 19% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 58%; expected goals 0.98-1.85; BTTS 53%; blended best estimate 17.7%/24.0%/58.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Arsenal.
Brier contribution: 0.2710 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Nottingham Forest win: 19%
- Draw: 23%
- Arsenal win: 58%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.98 - 1.85
- Over 2.5: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Nottingham Forest Elo 1691 · Arsenal Elo 1997
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 58% in this Matchweek 7 fixture at The City Ground — Nottingham Forest 19%, the draw 23%, Arsenal 58%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1997 vs 1691), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 58%. Nottingham Forest 19% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 58%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 16.5% Nottingham Forest win, 24.7% draw, 58.7% Arsenal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 17.7% / 24.0% / 58.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.