Newcastle United vs Sunderland Prediction

Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 14 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Newcastle United to win at 51%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 51%, draw 25%, Sunderland 24%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 51%

Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction: 51% / 25% / 24% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 51%

1-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 51% / Draw 25% / Sunderland 24%; expected goals 1.68-1.08; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 51%
Draw: 25%
Sunderland win: 24%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.68 - 1.08
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Sunderland Elo 1649

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Newcastle United clear favourites at 51% in this Matchweek 14 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 51%, the draw 25%, Sunderland 24%. A clear Elo edge to Newcastle United (1737 vs 1649), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Newcastle United are favoured at 51%. Newcastle United 51% / Draw 25% / Sunderland 24%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.