Newcastle United vs Manchester United Prediction

Dec 2, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 13 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Manchester United narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 31%, draw 26%, Manchester United 43%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%

Newcastle United vs Manchester United prediction: 31% / 26% / 43% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 43%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 31% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 43%; expected goals 1.23-1.49; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 31%
Draw: 26%
Manchester United win: 43%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.23 - 1.49
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Manchester United Elo 1847

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 13 fixture at St James Park: Newcastle United 31%, the draw 26%, Manchester United 43%. With a clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1847 vs 1737), Manchester United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Manchester United?

Manchester United are favoured at 43%. Newcastle United 31% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 43%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Manchester United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.