Newcastle United vs Manchester City Prediction

Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 17 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester City to win at 54%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 22%, draw 24%, Manchester City 54%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 54%

Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction: 22% / 24% / 54% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester City
model top outcome · 54%

0-1
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 22% / Draw 24% / Manchester City 54%; expected goals 1.04-1.75; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/newcastle-united-vs-manchester-city-2026-12-26-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/newcastle-united-vs-manchester-city-2026-12-26.png" alt="Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 22%
Draw: 24%
Manchester City win: 54%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.04 - 1.75
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Manchester City Elo 1950

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 54% in this Matchweek 17 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 22%, the draw 24%, Manchester City 54%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1950 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Manchester City are favoured at 54%. Newcastle United 22% / Draw 24% / Manchester City 54%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.