Newcastle United vs Manchester City Prediction

Dec 26, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 17 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester City to win at 57%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 20%, draw 23%, Manchester City 57%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 57%

Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction: 20% / 23% / 57% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester City
model top outcome · 57%

0-1
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 20% / Draw 23% / Manchester City 57%; expected goals 0.99-1.83; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/newcastle-united-vs-manchester-city-2026-12-26-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/newcastle-united-vs-manchester-city-2026-12-26.png" alt="Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 20%
Draw: 23%
Manchester City win: 57%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.99 - 1.83
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Manchester City Elo 1978

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 57% in this Matchweek 17 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 20%, the draw 23%, Manchester City 57%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1978 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Manchester City are favoured at 57%. Newcastle United 20% / Draw 23% / Manchester City 57%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.