FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · St. James' Park
Match Status
Newcastle United 2-2 Liverpool · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Liverpool narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 21, 12:04 AM UTC. This snapshot is over 8 hours old — odds have likely moved; tap a book for the live price.
| Sportsbook | Newcastle United | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.7 | 3.95 | 1.93 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.65 | 3.9 | 1.92 |
| ★ Best | 3.7 stake | 3.95 stake | 1.93 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 33% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 41%; expected goals 1.26-1.44; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 28.4%/25.2%/46.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Newcastle United 2-2 Liverpool. Model pick: Liverpool. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8216 · settled 2026-09-07
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 33%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 41%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.26 - 1.44
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1754 · Liverpool Elo 1823
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-23. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at St. James' Park: Newcastle United 33%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1823 vs 1754), Liverpool are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favoured at 41%. Newcastle United 33% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 41%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 25.7% Newcastle United win, 24.5% draw, 49.8% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 28.4% / 25.2% / 46.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Newcastle United vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.