FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · St. James' Park
Match Status
Kickoff 15:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Liverpool narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Liverpool win
Model 41.1% vs market 43.9%, edge -2.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.21 at stake · odds value -9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Liverpool win is 2.21 with stake. The model has it at 41.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 43.9% (-2.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Newcastle United win
Model 32.8% vs market 31.1%, edge +1.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.05 at stake · odds value -0%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Newcastle United win is 3.05 with stake. The model has it at 32.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 31.1% (+1.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.1% vs market 24.9%, edge +1.2pp.
Best available odds: 3.85 at stake · odds value +1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.85 with stake. The model has it at 26.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.9% (+1.2pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 32.8% | 26.1% | 41.1% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 31.1% | 24.9% | 43.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 31.8% | 25.4% | 42.8% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Newcastle United | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.21 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.05 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
| vave | 2.95 | 3.75 | 2.15 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3 | 3.8 | 2.17 |
| ★ Best | 3.05 stake | 3.85 stake | 2.21 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 33% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 41%; expected goals 1.26-1.44; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 31.8%/25.4%/42.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 33%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 41%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.26 - 1.44
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Liverpool Elo 1829
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at St. James' Park: Newcastle United 33%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. With a clear Elo edge to Liverpool (1829 vs 1737), Liverpool are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favoured at 41%. Newcastle United 33% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 41%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 31.1% Newcastle United win, 24.9% draw, 43.9% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 31.8% / 25.4% / 42.8%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Newcastle United vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.