FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Hull City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · St James Park
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Newcastle United to win at 73%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 73%, draw 17%, Hull City 10%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 73%
model top outcome · 73%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 73% / Draw 17% / Hull City 10%; expected goals 2.38-0.77; BTTS 49%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 73%
- Draw: 17%
- Hull City win: 10%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.38 - 0.77
- Over 2.5: 61%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Hull City Elo 1433
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Newcastle United clear favourites at 73% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 73%, the draw 17%, Hull City 10%. A big Elo gap in Newcastle United's favour (1737 vs 1433), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Newcastle United are favoured at 73%. Newcastle United 73% / Draw 17% / Hull City 10%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Newcastle United vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.