FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Hull City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · St James Park
Match Status
Newcastle United 2-1 Hull City · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Newcastle United to win at 67%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 67%, draw 20%, Hull City 13%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 67%
model top outcome · 67%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 67% / Draw 20% / Hull City 13%; expected goals 2.14-0.85; BTTS 51%; blended best estimate 62.5%/21.2%/16.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Newcastle United 2-1 Hull City. Model pick: Newcastle United. Actual result: Newcastle United.
Brier contribution: 0.1675 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 67%
- Draw: 20%
- Hull City win: 13%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.14 - 0.85
- Over 2.5: 57%
- Both teams to score: 51%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Hull City Elo 1499
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Newcastle United clear favourites at 67% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 67%, the draw 20%, Hull City 13%. A big Elo gap in Newcastle United's favour (1737 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Newcastle United are favoured at 67%. Newcastle United 67% / Draw 20% / Hull City 13%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Newcastle United vs Hull City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 59.6% Newcastle United win, 22.1% draw, 18.3% Hull City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 62.5% / 21.2% / 16.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Newcastle United vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.