Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction

Nov 2, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 9 · St James Park

Match Status

Newcastle United 0-1 Everton · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Newcastle United to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 45%, draw 26%, Everton 29%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 45%

Newcastle United 0-1 Everton result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 45%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-02
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 45% / Draw 26% / Everton 29%; expected goals 1.52-1.20; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Newcastle United 0-1 Everton. Model pick: Newcastle United. Actual result: Everton.

Brier contribution: 0.7616 · settled 2026-11-06

Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 45%
Draw: 26%
Everton win: 29%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.52 - 1.20
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1707 · Everton Elo 1713

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-02. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Newcastle United clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 9 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 45%, the draw 26%, Everton 29%. Near-level Elo ratings (Newcastle United 1707, Everton 1713), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Everton?

Newcastle United are favoured at 45%. Newcastle United 45% / Draw 26% / Everton 29%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Everton?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Everton?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.