Newcastle United vs Chelsea Prediction

Feb 10, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 25 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Newcastle United narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 42%, draw 26%, Chelsea 32%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%

Newcastle United vs Chelsea prediction: 42% / 26% / 32% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 42%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 42% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 32%; expected goals 1.46-1.25; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 42%
Draw: 26%
Chelsea win: 32%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.46 - 1.25
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Chelsea Elo 1739

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 25 fixture at St James Park: Newcastle United 42%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 32%. With near-level Elo ratings (Newcastle United 1737, Chelsea 1739), Newcastle United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Newcastle United are favoured at 42%. Newcastle United 42% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 32%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.