Newcastle United vs Brentford Prediction

Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 27 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Brentford narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 36%, draw 26%, Brentford 38%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%

Newcastle United vs Brentford prediction: 36% / 26% / 38% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Brentford
model top outcome · 38%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 36% / Draw 26% / Brentford 38%; expected goals 1.33-1.37; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 36%
Draw: 26%
Brentford win: 38%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.33 - 1.37
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1707 · Brentford Elo 1768

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 27 fixture at St James Park: Newcastle United 36%, the draw 26%, Brentford 38%. With a modest Elo edge to Brentford (1768 vs 1707), Brentford are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Brentford are favoured at 38%. Newcastle United 36% / Draw 26% / Brentford 38%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.